Wednesday, October 5, 2022 -- $21,410.47 (-$2,816.71, -11.63%)



Wednesday, October 5, 2022 -- $21,410.47 (-$2,816.71, -11.63%)

Since we are down almost another 12% since our last update, I thought it was time to make a low probability bet and purchased $1,100 worth of SPY put options that expire on Friday.  If the S&P drops about 7% over the course of the next two days then that position will make money, otherwise it will expire worthless.  Such a drop would require a notoriously unpredictable black-swan-type of event.  Well, we seem to have one possibly queued up.  If Russia were to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine, to which I assign about a 2% chance of this happening in the next 48 hours, then the broad market could plunge 10% in which case this position will go up in value almost 100x.  Still, the most likely scenario is that this position expires worthless in two days.

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