Wednesday, October 5, 2022 -- $21,410.47 (-$2,816.71, -11.63%) Since we are down almost another 12% since our last update, I thought it was time to make a low probability bet and purchased $1,100 worth of SPY put options that expire on Friday. If the S&P drops about 7% over the course of the next two days then that position will make money, otherwise it will expire worthless. Such a drop would require a notoriously unpredictable black-swan-type of event. Well, we seem to have one possibly queued up. If Russia were to use a tactical nuke in Ukraine, to which I assign about a 2% chance of this happening in the next 48 hours, then the broad market could plunge 10% in which case this position will go up in value almost 100x. Still, the most likely scenario is that this position expires worthless in two days.
